Africa is on course for a record 17 Gigawatt (GW) of solar in 2026, Ember estimates

Africa is expected to install a record 17 gigawatts of solar in 2026, with about three-quarters of that capacity in distributed systems that official statistics still struggle to see, according to Ember analysis published in October 2026. Installations rose about 45 percent year on year, after gains of 51 percent in 2025 and 25 percent in 2024. Ember expects 36 of Africa’s 54 countries to set installation records this year. South Africa’s share of African installations is expected to fall below 20 percent for the first time since 2019. Six countries are now gigawatt markets on Ember’s estimate: South Africa 3.3 GW, Egypt 2.0 GW, Nigeria 1.7 GW, the Democratic Republic of the Congo 1.7 GW, Algeria 1.4 GW and Morocco 1.0 GW. Year-on-year growth above 100 percent is estimated in 19 countries, including 544 percent in the DRC, 282 percent in Zimbabwe, 176 percent in Egypt and 117 percent in Zambia. The pattern matches what installers see on the ground. Much of the new capacity is commercial rooftop, estate and hybrid backup plant, not only utility farms. That is why customs data and installer surveys are currently a better guide than some national capacity registers. In June 2026 the W