Finnish Government publishes results of foresight project on Russia’s futures: Finland and Europe must prepare for multiple possible futures for Russia

The project results are presented in two publications: Russia’s Futures and a separate appendix that describes the key drivers of change affecting Russia’s development. Anyone interested can use and further develop the results. The project prepared four alternative scenarios for Russia’s development by 2045: Renewing Russia , Fading Russia , Imperialist Russia and Chaotic Russia . Besides the scenarios, the ministries also publish related impact assessments and a set of measures considered important regardless of which scenario, or combination of scenarios, emerges. Since Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the operating environment has become significantly more uncertain. The project identified 22 drivers of change affecting Russia’s development and 14 key uncertainties and used them as the basis for the scenarios. The appendix to Russia’s Futures is a collection of the key drivers of change affecting Russia’s development, covering the perspectives of foreign policy, society, the economy, technology, the environment and military developments. Key areas of analysis include the persistence of great-power thinking, demographic challenges, economic and technological

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